The Independence Day forecast for Maine? Tricky

A slow moving front and a tropical storm (soon to be hurricane) moving up the eastern seaboard are making for a tricky Independence Day forecast here in Northern New England.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement suggesting some weather weather will be with us at some point Friday, Friday night, and/or Saturday morning.

The timing, placement and how much is still a bit in question though. The variables include a slow moving front to our west and Tropical Storm Arthur off the Florida coast and the interaction between the two in the coming days.
Arthur_Info

Arthur will likely become a hurricane and affect the Outer Banks of the Carolina’s late Thursday night into early Friday morning. At the same time the slow moving front, and associated trough will begin to absorb some tropical moisture and send it north.
RPM2
The interaction between these two features (still thousands of miles away) will determine the timing and extent of rain late week and possibly into early weekend.  Based on today’s forecast I would expect

  1. Some showers with the chance for a t-storm at some point Friday.
  2. The potential for a period of steady rain Friday night into Saturday morning.
  3. Temperatures in the 70s to around 80.
  4. Relatively high humidity levels with dew point temperatures in the 60s.

Here are three different computer models and their handling of the wet weather around fireworks time (9:-00 PM ish)
GFS
NAMRPM_Local

The forecast remains tricky for the 4th and it will likely need tweaking and changes in the coming days. This is my best estimate a few days out. Stay tuned to the forecast if you have outdoor plans late week.  You can check out the video version of my “Weather Extra” here.  https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=654483701302623&set=vb.277654275652236&type=2&theater
Fireworks_Forecast

You can find updates to our forecast at WGME.com
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Charlie Lopresti

About Charlie Lopresti

Charlie makes up the "Weather Part" of CBS News 13s evening edition. A native New Englander, he grew up enjoying the area's exciting and sometimes wild weather.