Hurricane Matthew Update

**Tuesday AM Update
Interesting to see European model shift north a bit. That track still keeps the core of strongest winds and surge south and east of us, but puts Maine on the edge. Heavy rain/wind potential still on the table for Sunday or Monday. The storm would probably be a “hybrid” system in northern latitudes. That would allow wind field to expand out from the center. Similar to a big nor’easter in winter. Difference being leaves are on trees (more of a wind risk). Several inches of rain still possible with flooding a variable too monitor. Newer info suggests a slower timeframe here as well with Monday a possibility. Let’s carve out Sunday – Monday as the days to watch here in Maine. More later today.

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*Previous post from Monday*

Hurricane Matthew is category 4 hurricane 225 miles south of Haiti tonight. Winds are sustained at 140 mph with higher gusts. The storm is expected to bring life threatening rain, wind, and storm surge for parts of Haiti into early Tuesday. Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Central Bahamas. The East Coast of the US continues to monitor.

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Matthew looks to be a big threat to the southeast coast of the United States late week and into the weekend. Forecast modeling has suggested an initial shift in track west closer to South Carolina may be in the cards.
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Powerful storms like Matthew like to feed off of and stay over the warm ocean waters. Steering currents in the tropics are very weak and Matthew is waiting for a ride north from an approaching east coast trough. An analogy would be a leaf floating down a slow moving stream. The track will be slow in the coming days.

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There are two camps on the track for the weekend. Both are still in play, but I’m leaning towards scenario 2. .

1. The trough picks up the storm and surges north up the eastern seaboard to affect New England with torrential rainfall and strong winds Sunday. That is a set-up the US model GFS is outlining.
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Valid 2PM Sunday

2. The storm crawls off the southeast coast of the US (Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina) through the weekend and slowly drifts out to sea south and east of New England.  This is the scenario the European Model suggests and puts us on the edge.
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Valid 2PM Sunday

Based on today’s forecast, I’m leaning more towards option 2 avoiding the direct hit in northern New England.  The latest 18Z mid run of the GFS even shifted the core of the storm a bit east of northern New England by the end of the weekend.
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Even if we don’t experience a direct impact here in Maine, a front moving through on Sunday/Monday should bring wet weather. Some heavy rain is possible as tropical moisture works north.  More updates are on the way as we get closer. In the mean time, enjoy the beautiful stretch this week!

Charlie Lopresti

About Charlie Lopresti

Charlie makes up the "Weather Part" of CBS News 13s evening edition. A native New Englander, he grew up enjoying the area's exciting and sometimes wild weather.