Now Tropical Storm Jose has almost completed his loop about 500 miles south southwest of Bermuda. The hurricane apparently likes tequila. Jose is doing the “Jose Curve-o.” I can’t take credit for that one. It goes to my friend Ed Piotrowski in Myrtle Beach.+
On a more serious note, it’s still looking like Jose with strengthen and get a ride north in the coming days. The storm is expected to regain hurricane status, and track close to New England Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Jose can’t be ruled out as a New England threat, as it’s track is uncertain.
Typically when New England takes a direct hit from a hurricane, a trough is located over the eastern half of the US, with a high in the Atlantic. I like to use the analogy of a ball being pitched through a batting cage pitching machine.
The ball, or in this case hurricane, is steered north between the two wheels (Low and High). In an extreme example, this was the pattern that steered the 1938 hurricane north.
In this type of pattern, the hurricane will not accelerate on a given track, but instead act more like a cork bobbing down a slow moving stream. For that reason, it’s track remains highly uncertain as it makes it’s closest approach to New England Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecasters rely heavily on computer model guidance to track storms. Here are two examples of models in remarkably good agreement tracking Jose several hundred miles south of our area by Wednesday morning. European model on top and US GFS model below. Both are valid 8AM Wednesday.
Notice that track would bring rain and gusty winds to at least coastal Maine. Those examples are from their operational run or deterministic model. Both models have an ensemble or (set) of solutions. Here’s the European Model 51 member ensemble or set of spaghetti plots and low locations.
The good news is not one solution here would not give New England a direct hit from Jose. The storm may be close enough though to bring the area a glancing blow based on today’s forecast.
Other models also are pointing at a similar track, curving the storm east of New England.
The strength and even physics of the storm is in question when it arrives in Northern latitudes. Most modeling suggests the storm will stenghthen and reach it’s max intensity Sunday.
With any luck Jose will miss New England and bring nothing more than a surfers paradise mid-week. I know my friends at Moceans Surf Shop in Old Orchard Beach will be keeping an eye on the storm.
Stay tuned in the coming days. I’ll continue to have updates on CBS 13 and FOX 23. You can always get an updated forecast at wgme.com. Check out updates on Facebook and Twitter here.