*** SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE**
It has been a little over 7 months since we’ve expected non t-storm winds this strong. Peak gusts may get over 60 MPH for some locations.
Forecast looks on track for an 8 hr window of extreme winds roughly 12AM to 8AM Monday. New data would suggest frequent gusts in the 50 to 65 MPH range with some slightly higher peak gusts for some coast and marine locations.
If you’re lucky,you’ll keep power, & your leaves will blow into your neighbor’s yard. Could be extra spooky with no street lights Halloween. Time to bring the deck furniture in too.
Our next major storm will bring heavy rain and strong winds. Unlike our last storm that tapped into tropical moisture, this next one will be a quick hitter. The worst of the storm should be midnight through about 8 a.m. Monday. A deep trough over the eastern half of the United States will pick up a tropical system passing near the peninsula of Florida. The combination of deep tropical moisture/energy and a strong East Coast trough should rapidly intensify the storm before it arrives in New England.
The ingredients are all on the table for a major impact here in Maine with the potential for power outages.
There will be a solid surge of tropical rainfall associated with the storm as well, possibly resulting in another 2 to 4 inches of rain across the area.
Here’ s what we’re expecting
- Wind: Strongest midnight through 8AM Monday. Frequent gusts 45 to 55 MPH. That’s high enough for power outages. Strongest at the coast. Peak gusts should get into the 55 to 60 MPH range. Some Midcoast sites such as Rockland and marine buoys/lighthouse locations ( ex. Matinicus Rock, Isle of Shoals) have a good chance of getting over 60 MPH. Hurricane force gusts will rage only a few thousand feet above us. It’s looking like most of that extreme wind will stay aloft due to marine inversion. Here’s a model depiction of Portland showing the mixing layer (yellow line) suggesting winds associated with low level jet will remain aloft. Something to keep a close eye one. Heavy convective rain or t-storms have been known to mix winds like that down to the ground level.
Here’s the timeline showing strong southeast winds.
- Rain will get going Sunday evening. Heaviest looks to fall in that window of Midnight through 8AM Monday. Another 2” to 4” are possible. Highest amounts should be eastern slopes of the hills and mountains.
Rain will taper to showers by late morning Monday. We may get a sunset in that day.
- Flooding– Some road flooding much like Thursday night should be expected early Monday AM. Drains clogged by leaves may again become an issue.
- Interesting stats – We only need about 1” to be above normal in rain/melted snow for the year. We need 1.9” rain to be above normal in rainfall for the autumn season. Drought and fire danger were big stories just a week ago. Also, it was just 6 years ago we had a snowstorm dumping 5 to 10 inches of snow this weekend. It was the earliest 5” in Portland. Portland has not yet had a frost/freeze. The city did however touch 33 degrees twice this fall so far. Right now, 2017 is the 2nd latest first frost on record. The latest is Nov 4th
- No snow is expectedStay tuned to Adam’s forecast over the weekend for more update. Have a great weekend.