Messy Monday Night – Tuesday Storm

Monday Update

The next complex storm system on deck will bring a variety of weather conditions to the area over the next day and a half.  There’s a decent chance every town will experience every type of wintry precipitation over the next 24 hours.  That’s making the forecast a challenge even hours out from the precipitation arriving.    Initially the temperatures are cold enough throughout the atmosphere for precipitation to begin as snow.  We’re already seeing that with some ocean effect snow showers this evening.   I anticipate a warm wedge of air to works it’s way in above us around 7000′ in elevation overnight into early Tuesday.  As temperatures rise above freezing at that level snowflakes will fall, melt, and then refreeze as ice pellets.  Based on that expected set-up, sleet will become the dominate type of precipitation by Tuesday morning.  Snow totals should remain low for most areas and sleet and then freezing rain will become the issues throughout our Tuesday. That will make for slippery morning and afternoon commute throughout southern and central Maine.  The coast may try to get above freezing late in the day, but inland towns should remain below that threshold.  Any left over wintry mix and rain will come to an end by Wednesday morning.  That day will showcase clearing with highs in the low 40s. In fact the mild temperatures will hang around through Thursday.  More seasonable temperatures will be with us by the weekend.

TIMING:  Ocean effect snow showers develop this evening.  Steadier and heavier wintry mix will arrive 9PM – Midnight.  Wintry mix mostly being sleet and freezing rain will be with us for the entire day Tuesday.  Wintry mix/rain ends after midnight but before daybreak Wednesday.

TYPE:  Snow begins tonight and will change to sleet overnight through Tuesday morning.  Based on tonight’s forecast, sleet will become the dominant type of wintry precipiation on Tuesday. A transition to freezing rain and even some coastal rain is possible throughout the day.




HOW MUCH:  I’m banking on a warm wedge of temperatures to move in around 7000′ in elevation.  Based on that, a change from snow to sleet should occur rapidly.  Therefore snow totals should be held down considerably to a few to several inches for most of the area before the change over.  Stay tuned for changes as this is the most complex part of the forecast.


WIND:   Northeast winds will b strongest at the coast and more specifically mid coast Maine. There, gusts as high as 50 mph are possible. Elsewhere, I’d plan on gusts of 35 to 45 mph.  That should be enough for at least scattered power outages.    Strongest winds look to be between 3AM and 10 AM Tuesday.


COASTAL FLOODING:  We’re at the low part of the astronomical tide cycle early this week which is good news.  This storm will provided sizable waves and a 1.5 to 2′ surge. Based on that, the high tides will need to be monitored for splash over and beach erosion.   Those tides are 8:18 tonight, 8:27 AM Tuesday, and 9:05 PM Tuesday.


Sunday Update
Quick update on complex Monday night -Tuesday storm. Still zeroing in on Tuesday morning commute as slippery one for the entire area.  Focus for slippery roads during the Tuesday afternoon commute should shift inland as a transition to rain looks to be the case at the coast.  Precipitation type still remains the biggest challenge with this one as the area will see snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain.  Quite the variety!  Since we’re dealing with heavy precipitation, the timing of changing precipitation type will mean tricky snow/sleet accumulation forecast before the change. Most if not all snow/sleet accumulation will be during the overnight hours though the early morning commute Tuesday.  The change should take place Tuesday morning first occurring at the coast, and slowly working inland.  I honestly don’t know where I’d start with snow/sleet accumulation amounts even two days out.   Just a few hours of snow could really add up and the timing of change over will be crucial to those amounts.   With warm air nosing in around the height of the summit of Mt Washington around 6000 feet, sleet may end up being the dominant precipitation type.  While not great, that would be a better scenario than freezing rain.   Regardless, forecast is in good shape for high impact weather Monday night-Tuesday.  Still keeping an eye on winds as well. Gusts over 40 mph out of the northeast are possible 1am -9am Tuesday, esp at the coast. Power outages are possible.   This will be a classic “Nor’easter ” as the storm will showcase winds out of the northeast.  One last thing, flurries and snow showers look likely for most of the day Monday. It may end up to be a coating of snow, but the main event will arrive at night.  Adam is in with the forecast tonight on CBS 13 and Fox 23. Amanda will have updates in the morning. I’ll be in with updates for the evening newscasts.  Have a great second half of the weekend. GO PATS!

Friday Update
Hi Folks.  It’s Friday night and we’re all looking ahead to the weekend. Beyond that though, our next storm will be one to watch for Monday night through Tuesday.  The storm we’re keeping an eye on is originating from this mischief currently affecting the west coast.

The trough will pick up some gulf of Mexico moisture on Sunday and the surface low will strengthen and surge north.  Based on today’s forecast, snow lovers won’t be thrilled with the expected storm track.  The low should track somewhere near southeastern MA and Cape Cod. A track like that will likely throw some warm air over head several thousand feet in elevation.
A northeast wind, and stale snow pack in place, should be able to keep cold air in place at the ground level for and extend period, and esp. over the interior.  That would make for some slippery travel for the Tuesday morning commute.

Any precipitation we this weekend through early next week looks very light and mostly flurries and drizzle.  The time frame to zero in on looks to be Monday night though Tuesday. The track looks too warm for a big snow storm,  but some freezing/frozen precipitation appears to be in the cards.  Aaccumulations of snow are likely at the onset, but a transition to sleet and  freezing rain will become the focus by Tuesday morning for many towns in southern and central Maine.  Icing looks to be a  concern that day, but based on the latest info, sleet may play a bigger role intoTuesday morning. The reason being, instead of a shallow layer of cold temperature at the ground level, that cold layer should extend up to 4,500 feet.  Above that (around 6,000 feet) temperatures should be above freezing.  I anticipate rain drops freezing as they fall into that cold layer, resulting in sleet for a large portion of the area.  That would be a better senario than freezing rain and definatly something we’ll be monitoring.  Coastal areas should warm above freezing, resulting in a change to all rain during the day.

Another variable will be winds. Gusts 30 to 40 mph may lead to some scattered power outages Tuesday.   Depending on the temperature set up, potential for localized flooding might be something to watch as over an inch of rain is possible.  That’s the scoop three days out.  The storm should be gone by Wednesday morning.  Stay tuned for updates in the coming days as we’re still many days away and lots can change.

Thanks for checking in,

Charlie Lopresti

About Charlie Lopresti

Charlie makes up the "Weather Part" of CBS News 13s evening edition. A native New Englander, he grew up enjoying the area's exciting and sometimes wild weather.