Irma Zeroing In On Track Into Or Near Florida

Irma remains a major category 5 hurricane this evening with winds sustained 185 MPH.
Irma has maintained that sustained wind of 185 mph now for 36 hrs.  She’s on the short list of longest lived cat 5 hurricanes.

List by Philip Koltzhach

Also, based on winds, Irma is in a 4 way tie for 2nd strongest on record in the Atlantic Basin.

The minimum central pressure in Irma is currently 914 mb.  That’s now below 27″ of mercury 26.99″  Here the list of the most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic based on pressure.

Shifting gears to intensity of land falling hurricanes. Here’s a list by Philip Klotzhach of most intense US land falling hurricanes ranked by pressure. Note Harvey showing up tied for #14.

Forecast modeling and the National Hurricane Center is zeroing in on a track into or near Florida over the weekend. Biggest impacts there are expected to be Sunday.

The spaghetti model spread including NHC track

The European and GFS model ensemble members show some wiggle room over the peninsula, but this storm has the potential to be catastrophic in the Sunshine State.

The GFS and European models operational runs from this morning are in remarkable agreement bringing the eye of the extremely dangerous storm into or very close south and east Coast Florida. Only

European Model

Now GFS Model

A rough estimate show only about 30 mile difference between the two hurricane center tracks, which is extremely rare this far out.

The Northeast Coast of Georgia and Carolina’s may also be in the cross hairs for a second landfall Monday (assuming the 1st is in FL).

There’s a tremendous amount of warm ocean water for the storm to feed on and very little shear to weaken the storm. If the center stays over open ocean waters, there’s a very good chance we’ll be adding Irma to some lists posted above.  Some folks have been asking if we’ll see any effects from the storm here in Maine? There’s some indications remnant rainfall from Irma may arrive in New England late Wednesday next week.

A lot still needs to come together for that though, and based on today’s forecast, it is not expected to be significant.

Stay updated on the track and intensity of the storm at You can also find updates through social media here. Thanks for reading.





Charlie Lopresti

About Charlie Lopresti

Charlie makes up the "Weather Part" of CBS News 13s evening edition. A native New Englander, he grew up enjoying the area's exciting and sometimes wild weather.